Pulp futures are now more linked, and the spot price rises sharply

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In February 2021, the spot market for imported wood pulp rose at a high level. The price of softwood pulp rose by 800 yuan/ton, the price of hardwood pulp rose by 900 yuan/ton, the natural pulp rose by 250-350 yuan/ton, and the cumulative price of chemical pulp Up 550-750 yuan/ton. The main reasons affecting the price trend are as follows: First, pulp futures have risen strongly, hitting 7,500 yuan/ton, circulated supply is tight, and the linkage between futures and cash has increased, driving up spot offers; second, imported wood pulp has been on the market since Since the fourth quarter, the price has continued to rise. This round of reporting has risen by US$50-150/ton, which is more than the previous increase. In the later period, the pressure on cost increases, and the industry is reluctant to sell at low prices. Third, the successive transactions of foreign markets and the reduction of foreign business volume have caused the industry’s psychology. Expectations continue to ferment; fourthly, the price increase rate and frequency are too fast, and the pressure on small and medium-sized paper companies has increased, which will further boost paper prices and strengthen the linkage between pulp and paper.

Non-wood pulp market review

According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of February 26, the average monthly price of imported softwood pulp was 6,804 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.74% month-on-month and 51.01% year-on-year; the average monthly price of imported hardwood pulp was 5415 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.32 month-on-month. %, a year-on-year increase of 44.95%; the monthly average price of imported natural pulp was 5880 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.11% month-on-month and 31.11% year-on-year; the monthly average price of imported chemical pulp was 4,319 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7.16% and a year-on-year increase of 8.05%.

In February, the non-wood pulp market first stabilized and then rose. The Chinese New Year coincided with the middle of the month. Manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices before the holiday, and pulp mills generally reported gains after the holiday. As of February 26, the ex-factory price of bamboo pulp board including tax was 5500-5800 yuan/ton in southwest China, the price of sugarcane pulp wet pulp including tax in Guangxi area was 4250-4400 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price including tax of bleached reed pulp board in Liaoning area was 4500 Yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of bleached reed pulp wet pulp including tax is 4300 Yuan/ton. The main factors affecting the price change of non-wood pulp: First, the price of imported wood pulp has risen strongly, with a cumulative increase of 800-900 yuan/ton, driving the price increase atmosphere in the non-wood pulp market; second, downstream raw paper manufacturers have continuously issued price increase letters to support non-wood pulp The price of wood pulp has risen; third, some pulp mills have good pre-order shipments, and the inventory pressure is not great, which is good for the increase in pulp prices.

Analysis of Household Paper Market

The market price of household paper continued to rise in February, and the analysis of the influencing factors of market price changes is as follows: First, the price of imported wood pulp continued to rise in February, especially after the Spring Festival, the cost side still produced a strong boost. Secondly, in the early post-holiday period, some downstream processing plants have appropriate just-needed replenishment, and demand has a positive performance in a short time. Third, paper companies are determined to increase prices and frequently issue price increase letters within the month to boost market confidence. Fourth, some sugarcane pulp in Guangxi has flowed to paper and plastic production enterprises, and the price of pulp has risen, which has helped paper companies to increase the price of shaft paper, and at the same time produced certain support for the wood pulp shaft paper market. As of February 26th, the mainstream shipment price of the shotcrete wood pulp shaft factory in Hebei area with tax-exemption is about 6,800 yuan/ton, which is 400 yuan/ton higher than the end of last month, an increase of about 6.25%; shotcrete wood pulp in Shandong area The main shipment price of the main shaft factory with tax-excluded reference is 6850 yuan/ton, which is about 350 yuan/ton higher than that at the end of January, an increase of 6.25%; the tax-included price of the sugarcane pulp factory in Guangxi is about 5850 yuan/ton, compared with 1. At the end of the month, it rose 500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 9.35%; the original bamboo pulp shaft tax-included plant in Sichuan raised the price at about 7,150 yuan/ton, which was 450 yuan/ton higher than that at the end of January, an increase of 6.72%. Forecast: There are still some paper companies that have issued a price increase letter and are planning to continue to increase the price in early March. The highest planned increase is 1,000 yuan/ton. The industry will increase the expected preference, and the cost of imported wood pulp is still supported. Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis, March The household paper market still has room to grow stronger, but some end-to-end copy orders may lag slightly behind.

Future prospects of the pulp market

Zhuo Chuang Information analyzes that the price of imported wood pulp continues to rise, and it is expected that non-wood pulp industry players will follow the rise.

Zhuo Chuang Information analyzed that short-term industry news, capital dominance, industry concentration, industry expectations and other factors are intertwined. The strong operation of pulp futures prices will continue to affect the trend of spot prices. In the long run, large-scale paper companies have obvious cost advantages, but excessively rapid price increases need to be alert to the ability of the industry in the later stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual implementation of new pulp and paper production capacity and base paper price increases.

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